Like I try to do every year, I’m going to break down individual categories in the NBA into various tiers of players. And how they are likely to perform this year in your NBA Fantasy Basketball Rotisserie league. With so many high profile, team-affecting players switching team this offseason, it is likely going to be difficult to make some of these predictions — much more difficult than it has been in years past.

But I’m going to give it a shot.

The first category that we are going to address is points scored. Each player is going to be listed with his 2009-2010 season numbers in parentheses next to his name.

Tier 1 (2200+ points)

1. Kevin Durrant (2472) – Kevin Durrant is going to be the lone man at the top BY FAR unless Kobe Bryant really decides to assert himself, Carmelo Anthony gets traded to a dog team, or 2 of the 3 Kings are injured for the entire year.

Tier 2 (1800 – 2200 points)

1. Carmelo Anthony (1943) – One of the best scorers in the league, Melo is likely to continue his scoring ways. Whether he can get anywhere close to Kevin Durant may be more based on his health and which team he is playing for than anything else. He is likely going to be the highest scorer in Tier 2, and a trade to a particularly bad team could have him competing with Durant for the scoring title.
2. Kobe Bryant (1970) – With so much help from teammates, Kobe has taken a step back on asserting himself for every minute of every game. With the number of minutes he has played throughout his career, there is a decent chance that his body and his numbers are on their way down.
3. Dwyane Wade (2045) – Frequent injuries and a couple of teammates who are going to need the ball in their hands is going to prevent Wade from even competing with Durant to be recognized in Tier 1. I don’t dare drop him to Tier 3, though, because I still remember the days of Run TMC where Tim Hardaway, Mitch Richmond, and Chris Mullin managed to score plenty of points to satisfy each of them.
4. Dirk Nowitzki (2027) – Dirk continues to play and continues to score. Even as he ages, I don’t imagine that his numbers will decrease that much. He’s still the star of the team, and Jason Kidd is still going to get him the ball.
5. Amar’e Stoudemire (1896) – I’m not sure what playing in New York is going to do to his numbers. He won’t have Steve Nash getting him the ball any more, but I don’t know why he wouldn’t be able to get at least 1800, assuming he can stay healthy.
6. LeBron James (2258) – LBJ is likely to take the biggest hit to his scoring of the three Kings. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if his final scoring numbers are closer to 1600 than 1800. His already great assist numbers might increase even more, however.
7. David Lee (1640) – David Lee continues to improve year after year. I think Lee will thrive at Golden State, even without Nellie as the coach.
8. Derrick Rose (1619) – Rose improved by 4 points per game last year, and I think it’s equally possible that this star point guard increases by another 4 and breaks into Tier 2.
9. Brook Lopez (1542) – Brook made a vast improvement from year 1 to year 2, and I expect a similar improvement in year 3.
10. Tyreke Evans (1450) – If any second year guy has a chance of cracking this group, it’s Tyreke. His team doesn’t have many scoring options besides him. And if he was that good last year, he’ll likely be even better this year.

Tier 3 – (1600 – 1800)

1. Zach Randolph (1681) – Zach is going to continue to score in bunches. I don’t expect his average to drop too much over last year, or increase much either.
2. Stephen Jackson (1667) – Stephen Jackson knows how to score. If he can keep from getting suspended he will get over 1600 again.
3. Monta Ellis (1631) – I’d like to move Monta into Tier 2, but I’m really not sure how David Lee, Monta Ellis, and Stephen Curry could all be in that group. I think David Lee has the biggest chance of moving in there, but I could be wrong.
4. Joe Johnson (1619) – I think Joe Johnson’s numbers will be similar to last year’s, despite a monstrous contract.
5. Rudy Gay (1567) – Rudy Gay’s scoring averages have been fairly static year after year. He’ll be straddling the line this year, but we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.
6. David West (1541) – David West is another player who may or may not hit 1600, but it should be close. The beauty about picking David West is that he is a top ten pick who is available in the third round of most Fantasy Basketball Leagues.
7. Dwight Howard (1503) – Dwight Howard’s points scored numbers dipped last year. The new “mean” Dwight Howard is likely to improve back to this category.
8. Danny Granger (1497) – This one is probably something of a stretch, but we’ll put him here.
9. O.J. Mayo (1432) – O.J. was here in his rookie season, but his points dipped in 2009-2010. I expect it to return here for year 3.
10. Stephen Curry (1399) – Curry was fantastic in his first year, especially as the year progressed. I expect him to be a Tier 2 scorer this year as part of a high-powered Golden State offense.

High Scorers available in late rounds

1. Jamal Crawford – Seventh Round
2. Chris Kaman – Sixth Round
3. Corey Maggette – Ninth Round
4. Carl Landry – Eighth Round
5. Luis Scola – Seventh Round

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