There is a chill in the morning air.

That means two things to me.

1. College Football is starting up.

2. It’s time to sign up for Fantasy Basketball and start doing the research to pick the best Fantasy Basketball team that we can.

For my first blog of the Fantasy Basketball season, I’m going to look over the candidates for the first two rounds of the Fantasy Draft. The first two rounds are extremely important because if you don’t have the right top echelon players on your team, you’re in real trouble. A bunch of good players later on aren’t going to make up for missing out in the top two rounds.

So here are my observations about the top 30 or so players who could be available when you pick in the first couple of rounds and why you should or shouldn’t consider them.

The Top 2 Picks

Chris Paul – If you have the first pick, you really have to go for Paul. His turnovers are a little high and his three point shooting is a bit lacking, but other than that he has no faults. He regularly leads the league in assists and steals and the rest of his stats are fantastic as well.

LeBron James – If you have the second pick in your fantasy draft, you really can’t go for anyone else besides King James. Fantastic three pointers, points, rebounds, assists, and steals. And good blocks as well. His free throw percentage was much improved last year. And he is in a contract year.

Now this is where it starts getting tricky

First Round

Dwyane Wade – This is probably the consensus pick, especially considering that he is in a contract year, but I still have the terrible memory of his string of injury-prone seasons in the not too distant past. In fact, he managed to get on my “don’t pick him whatever you do” list for a few years running. He managed to play almost all of the year last year, so perhaps his injuries are behind him. I think this is a bit of a risky pick at 3, but it is also the highest reward of the players left. Do be aware that his turnover numbers are always extremely high.

Kobe Bryant – Kobe is still fantastic, but I’m not so sure that I don’t pick Pau Gasol over Kobe Bryant if the two Lakers were both available where I was picking. Kobe gets you free throw percentage, points, rebounds, assists, and steals, but Pau can fill your center spot. Kobe has played so many minutes up to this point and his supporting cast is so good, that I can’t see his stats not start falling off a bit over previous years.

Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk’s points continued to be stellar last year, and his turnovers are still extremely low for a top player. His rebounds continued to drop, as they have over the last few years. I don’t expect too much different from Dirk this year, and you always know that he’s going to be playing at least 75 games. A very safe pick, but one that will require good picks for assists, steals, and blocks later on.

Danny Granger – Another safe pick (a la Dirk Nowitzki). I don’t think he can really get you as much as Dirk can, so I really don’t think you pick him higher than Nowitzki. Still, he does belong in this group.

Kevin Durant – If you wanted to really cause a stir, pick Durant with the third pick in the draft. Elite players third seasons tend to be their breakout seasons, so this could be shaping up to be a fantastic year for Durant, especially for points. I think he is a safer pick than Dwayne Wade, but I also don’t think his stats will quite match up to Wade if Wade can remain healthy.

Pau Gasol – Gasol is the top center in the league, fantasy-wise. Period. He is good at everything, and he continues to improve year after year. He won’t get you the monsterous rebound and block numbers of Dwight Howard, but he also won’t kill you on free throw percentage and turnovers.

Amar’e Stoudemire – Injury after injury leave most fantasy owners jaded about taking Stoudemire. If he can put together a rather injury-free season, Stoudemire could have another monster year. With Shaq leaving town, the run-and-gun offense can return, and Stoudemire’s numbers should return to a high level.

Chris Bosh – Another top player in his contract year. I don’t see Bosh’s numbers improving too much over last year’s, though, so if you are looking for a top 5 sleeper, Bosh won’t be that.

Brandon Roy – If any player could improve enough to sneak into the top 5 this year, Brandon Roy is probably the most likely player. He has Andre Miller passing to him now, and he has continued to show steady improvement in his game year after year. He might even have more upside than Durant considering the fact that his game is much more well-rounded than Durant’s. Aside from CP3 and LBJ, I don’t know that there are any other players that you could guarantee would be better then Roy for the upcoming year.

Borderline First-Second Round

Kevin Garnett – I think Garnett is on his way down. His body finally showed the wear-and-tear that we had been expecting over the last few years but never happened. I don’t know if I’d pick him in the first two rounds at all, which is quite a drop from being a guaranteed first rounder for the last decade.

Chauncey Billups – Billups is getting old, but I don’t think it showed much after he was traded to Denver. I’d much rather have Billups over many of the players list above him — just for his three throws and assists alone. I’m a huge Chauncey Billups fan, so I don’t really have any good reasons for not picking him as long as it is in the late first round or second round.

Al Jefferson – All of us know that he could be this high, but given his history of injury, I don’t think any self-respecting fantasy owner would dare pick Jefferson in the first two rounds.

Second Round

Deron Williams – Williams might be a solid second rounder with his great assist numbers and good shooting, but he is never going to get into the first round until he can improve his steals and rebounds. Despite his size, I don’t think Deron will ever be a great rebounder. If you went for Nowitzki, Durant, Gasol or one of the other low assist players in the first round, you might consider Deron in the second round, but I don’t even know that I’d pick Williams over Chauncey Billups.

Steve Nash – His stats last year were more worthy of a third round pick then a pick in the first two rounds. With Shaq gone and Stoudemire healthy, he might well be worth a late first round pick. His high percentages, assists, and three pointers are certainly worth a look. If you are looking for a sleeper, though, I don’t think Steve’s stats this year are going to sneak up on anybody.

Tim Duncan – Duncan’s numbers were still good last year and his free throw percentage continues to be an issue, especially with the number of times Duncan gets to the line. There was significant drop of 4% between 07-08 and 08-09, though he was still much higher that he was in 05-06 and 06-07. He’s probably worth a pick in the late second round, especially if he has center eligibility in your league, though you might have to counter it with some good free throw shooting by your other players.

Antawn Jamison – He played 81 games last year. He had great three pointers, points, rebounds, and steals and his turnovers were phenomenally low (about 1.5 per game). He is well worth a look in the second round, especially above some of the more risky picks that we have been talking about in this same group. Definitely a safe pick, assuming the Wizard’s famous injury bug doesn’t nab him this year.

Jose Calderon – Calderon could be a legitimate second rounder if he continues to improve and he doesn’t get hit with injuries. He only played 68 games last year. His stats are fairly safe, but his points are a extremely low for consideration in the second round, especially with the first two rounds being the ones where you are almost required to pick high scoring players. If your other pick was LeBron, D-Wade, Kobe, Dirk, Durant, or Roy, you might be able to ride out his low scoring output. Otherwise, I think you should really wait until the third round.

Jason Kidd – Never stellar at points or field goal shooting, Kidd continues to be great at rebounds, assists, and steals. You’d really have to have a good strategy for points to pick him up in the first or second rounds (see Jose Calderon to see what I’m talking about).

David West – Great numbers and percentages again last year. I don’t see why he would be worth a good look in the late second round.

Borderline Second Rounders

Caron Butler – Despite the fact that Caron Butler isn’t really a superstar on the same caliber as the other players on this list, his stats (particularly his steals) have always put him in the same fantasy echelon. His recent history of injuries, however, should force you to wait until the third round or later to pick him up, at which point he will likely be gone to a team willing to take risks.

Rashard Lewis – One of the top three point shooters in the league, Lewis continues to impress. I’m not sure how Vince Carter affects his statistics, though. The Vince Carter factor will surely affect whether he gets picked up in the second or third round by Fantasy owners.

Gerald Wallace – Statistically, the ultimate in safe picks. Wallace gets you some of everything and his field goal and free throw percentages are good as are his low turnover numbers. Personally I don’t like him for a second round pick simply because of his injury history. His points are a bit low for a second rounder, though, so I’d think twice before taking him with a second round pick unless I had picked Kobe, LeBron, or Wade with my first pick.

Andre Iguodala – I don’t see why Andre is considered a first or second round pick, personally. None of his stats are bad (with the possible exceptions of free throw shooting and turnovers), but none of them really blow you away either. I’d consider him more of a fourth rounder personally, though I don’t think he’d fall that low in a real fantasy draft.

Devin Harris – Not sure he’s worth a second round pick, but some people think his upside is high enough that they are willing to stretch. Without Vince Carter on the team, what are his stats likely to look like? More points, lower field goal percentage, lower assists. I think there are better picks to be had in the second round.

Joe Johnson – If I had to pick between Devin Harris and Joe Johnson, I think Johnson is the safer pick. Johnson gets twice as many three pointers and higher points and rebounds and lower turnovers. Devin Harris is one of the better players in the league for steals. I think we know what we’re going to get from Johnson, so some people might pick Harris from upside alone. Plus with Vince Carter off the team, Harris’s points might well match those of Joe Johnson.

Vince Carter – Carter always seems to get his. We’ll have to see how he fits in with a stacked Orlando Magic roster, though. I think I might wait until the early third round to pick him up, though his numbers last year mark him as a mid to late second rounder.

Paul Pierce – Pierce still seems to be playing at peak level. If you were debating between Carter and Pierce here, I think Pierce is the safer pick. Carter’s numbers were a bit better at New Jersey, but with his move to a new team, Pierce is the safer pick here.

Brook Lopez – With Carter leaving, I’m not sure where that puts Lopez. His point numbers weren’t nearly high enough for second round consideration last year, but this year they might be. If I wanted to make sure I got my center early this year, I’d consider him late second round.

Possible Second Round Sleepers

These are players who played well enough last year to deserve second round consideration, but nobody is giving them serious consideration this year in spite of what they proved on the court last year.

Ray Allen – Strong: FG%, FT%, 3PT, PTS, TO
Troy Murphy – Strong: FG%, FT%, 3PT, RB, TO
David Lee – Strong: FG%, PTS, RB, TO
Jason Terry – Strong: FT%, 3PT, PTS, TO
Nene Hilario – Strong: FG%, RB, BLK, TO
Mo Williams – Strong: FT%, 3PT, PTS

Don’t pick him in the Second Round, even though you really want to

Dwight Howard – Great points, phenomenal rebounds, blocks, and field goal percentage. Horrible free throw shooting. If he could eke that up close to 70% I could recommend picking him up. At sub-60%, you will be throwing away one of your categories. I’d love to hear of someone win a fantasy league with the guy playing on their roster, but I really don’t think it’s possible without collusion among the other owners in the league. Howard’s turnovers are also excessive and obviously three-pointers and assists are not really part of his game either.