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October 04, 2008

Fantasy Basketball 2008 – Rebounds

We normally get rebounds when we draft power forwards and centers. The more power forwards and centers we can draft, the better we do in rebounds (and often field goal percentage and blocks), and the worse we do in assists (and often free throw percentage and steals). As we draft for rebounds, however we need to be very careful about some of our other statistical categories and that we are not doing irreparable harm to them for this season.

Let’s take a look at a few of the players who lead the league in rebounds and which ones you should keep an eye on and which ones you should simply avoid, despite their aptitude on the boards.


Tier 1

  1. Dwight Howard – 1161 – Although Howard is often considered a third or fourth round pick, you should never actually consider picking him up unless your league doesn’t use free throw percentage. Like Shaq from the previous generation of poor free throw shooters who shoot very often, Howard is untouchable. Don’t be tempted. Let some other poor sap’s free throw percentage tumble (and their turnovers skyrocket) at the hand of Superman.
  2. Marcus Camby – 1037 – The only other player in the NBA worth of Tier 1 status right now. Luckily for Marcus Camby owners, Camby’s free throw percentage won’t hurt fantasy owners. In addition, his blocks are stellar and his turnovers low. How will this translate on his new team, the Los Angeles Clippers? I doubt it will change much. He’s definitely worth a late first round/early second round pick. Honestly, his stats are probably worth a high first round pick, but you likely won’t have to pick him this high.
  3. Al Jefferson – 911 – This placement is mostly placed on the basis of potential. Jefferson keeps getting better and the new acquisitions by the Timberwolves might actually help him to get more rebounds. Look for a Jefferson to top 1000 rebounds if he can remain healthy. He won’t come cheap, though. Jefferson is likely to go in the second round with Camby.

Tier 2

  1. Tyson Chandler – 928 – He won’t get you much else besides a high field goal percentage (which doesn’t translate much because be scores as many points and he nabs rebounds) and low turnovers. Still he’s probably worth a look in the sixth round (if another team doesn’t grab him overly early to get their hands on a second tier center before they are all gone). I don’t imagine his rebounding will improve much from this amount, but you can probably be reassured that it won’t decrease either as long as he is in New Orleans receiving the ball from Chris Paul.
  2. Tim Duncan – 881 – I don’t recommend picking up Duncan in the late second/early third round because of his low free throw percentage, but he isn’t quite as untouchable as Dwight Howard is. I picked him up one year and regretted it. I’d get my rebounds from somewhere else.
  3. Emeka Okafor – 876 – He played all 82 games last year (probably due to the fact that it was a contract year), but the often injured Okafor is usually a risky prospect as your primary rebounder. His free throw percentage is low, but he doesn’t shoot so many free throws that it will kill your stats in that category as long as you have some very good shooters on your team. Usually goes somewhere around the fifth round, but you might want to consider Tyson Chandler in the sixth instead.
  4. Samuel Dalembert – 849 – Dalembert is a two hit wonder, rebounds and blocks. He doesn’t hurt you in anything, and might be a nice fifth round pick if you have shored up your three pointers, points, assists, and steals already. It’s hard to say how playing alongside Elton Brand is going to affect him, but I have to think it would only help him to clean up the boards with other players cheating off of him.
  5. Carlos Boozer – 844 – Boozer will help you immensely in field goal percentage and points and will hinder you in free throw percentage and turnovers. In addition, his steals aren’t bad for a power forward. A nice second round pick that might be even nicer this year, his contract year.

Tier 3

  1. Lamar Odom – 819 – How will Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum affect his stats? Will there really be that many rebounds to go around? He’s a late fourth round/early fifth round pick in most leagues. If he lasts late into the fifth round, he’s probably worth a shot despite the questions.
  2. Antawn Jamison – 806 – If you could count on Arenas launching up shots and drawing defenses to him, Jamison would probably be worth a look in the late second round. With Arenas out indefinitely with an injury, there will be less rebounds to go around and less easy shots for Jamison to take. Still he would be a solid third round pick and a steal if he drops to the fourth round.
  3. Al Horford – 785 – His potential puts him close to the first tier. We saw what he could do as a rookie, and it was indeed impressive. A solid sixth round pick based on potential, but I don’t think I’d risk picking him any earlier than the sixth round.
  4. Andrew Bogut – 763 – Another sixth rounder based on potential, but I think I like the upside of Al Horford if given the choice between Bogut and Horford in the sixth round.
  5. Elton Brand (injured last year) – He had 744 rebounds the year before, so expect him, if he is truly healthy, to return to those kind of numbers.
  6. Andris Biedrins – 744 – He keeps getting better. Not sure what he will do now that he is secure in a fat contract.
  7. Nick Collison – 730 – Good late rounder if you miss out on some of the top players in the earlier rounds. He gives you nothing else besides rebounds, though.
  8. David Lee – 724 – Can anyone say that this isn’t the top potential sleeper of the draft, especially if he falls to the seventh round? One thing nice you can say about Isiah Thomas — he knew how to draft! Under D’Antoni, David Lee could explode. His ability to get enough minutes could depend on shedding the contracts of Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry. Then again, maybe D’Antoni will just forget about them, despite their monstrous contracts.
  9. Amare Stoudemire – 719 – If Stoudemire can play mostly power forward alongside Shaq, the rebounding potential could be a couple of hundred higher. Not sure that Shaq really has the energy to play the majority of the season, though, so somewhere in the 700s is probably a good guess again this year. (If he doesn’t get injured.)
  10. Chris Kaman – 711 – Replace Elton Brand with Marcus Camby. How does this affect, Kaman’s rebound numbers. Not sure. Since he is likely a fourth rounder, I think I’d pass on him and wait for the plethora of good rebounders likely available in the fifth and sixth rounds instead.
  11. Zach Randolph – 710 – Not sure how Randolph fits into D’Antoni’s strategy. Probably worth the risk in the eighth round, but you could get burned.

There are also a host of other good guys available in the 600s like Zydrunas Ilgauskis, David West, Josh Smith, and Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion, and Jason Kidd. Be aware of these players. You won’t be picking them up primarily for their rebounds, but their rebounds certainly are something to be aware of because they help them be even more valuable.

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