Like I do every year, I break down the best 3 point shooters from last year and decide whether they are likely to accomplish the same, better, or worse than what they accomplished last year. After all, players normally don’t change much in stats from year to year unless 1) they get moved to or from a starting lineup, or 2) personnel changes make it better or worse for them (including them moving to a different team).

Grouping the players into tiers, here is what I came up with on three point shooting:

1. Jason Richardson - 243 - Though the Bobcats didn’t accomplish much as far as wins go, that didn’t stop Jason Richardson, the recently traded Golden State Warrior from getting his. Nothing is going to change this year, so expect Richardson to again be at the top of the league in three point shooting. He also got 1788 points. A great third pickup in the third round, especially seeing at how hist stats probably should have earned him a late first round pickup.
2. Peja Stojakovic - 231 - Whether or not Peja can stay healthy, you have to consider him if he lasts until the seventh round. You don’t want to pick up an injury-prone player in your first five rounds, but sometimes you can take a chance in the later rounds. CP3 is likely to keep getting Peja the ball. Stojakovic is probably still good for 200, even at his age, if he can get in another 80 games. The biggest question here is if James Posey cuts enough into Peja’s playing time that he can’t launch 7 threes per game and make 2 or 3 of them.
3. Rashard Lewis - 226 - Lewis is still in his prime. His numbers should remain way up here. He’ll likely go in the second round, which is probably about where he is worth. His field goal percentage and free throw percentage are stellar, so you may want to seriously consider him here. Of course, you also might want to consider making sure you get some good assists or rebounds here, and waiting for a later round for one of the other tier one three point shooters.
4. Stephen Jackson - 182 - Jackson might be a knucklehead, but with Baron Davis gone Jackson is only likely to get more shots than last year. Jackson won’t be shy launching them up, and Nellie isn’t likely to hinder him in anyway. Expect something around 200 or higher for Stephen Jackson this year. A good sixth round pick.
5. Jamal Crawford - 176 - If Crawford gets a starting nod by new Knicks coach D’Antoni, expect Crawford to get over 200 three pointers this year, especially in a run-and-gun offense like D’Antoni is likely to institute. Also a very good sixth round pick, probably with even more upside than Jackson if D’Antoni plays him a lot.
6. Danny Granger - 171 - Not sure what Granger will do now the O’Neal is gone, and it is pretty much his team. He’s got a host of good role players around him, and now he has a really good point guard to get him the ball where he wants it. Not that he needs much help getting himself a good shot. This is probably the riskiest of the first tier picks, especially considering he is likely going to be a late first rounder. I’d much rather risk a shot on him than other late first rounders Dwyane Wade or Caron Butler, since Granger is more likely than not to play almost every game this year.

Tier 2 (2.0 - 2.5 per game)

1. Ray Allen - 180 - He would be a tier 1 choice if his body weren’t on its way down. He is still likely to get a lot of three pointers, but I’m dropping to tier 2 because he’ll likely get somewhere between 160 and 170 this year, if his body holds up. Still worth a look in the fifth round, though, where he is likely to go, especially considering that his free throw percentage is so high.
2. Steve Nash - 179 - Another good three-point shooter moving past his prime. Nash is likely a second round pick again this year, but it’s hard to say how many three pointers he will be launching this year under a new head coach. Don’t look for him to hit 179 again this year. Of course, his field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and assists will always make him a good second round pickup.
3. Raja Bell - 176 - Another player who is likely to have his three point shooting drop because of age and the lack of D’Antoni offense. Still, if he really goes somewhere near the tenth round, he’d certainly be worth a look if you know you are lacking on three pointers towards the end of your draft. It isn’t likely that he’ll get another 176 three pointers, but he’ll probably be good for 140. After all, a couple of years agon he was going for over 200 and you don’t suddenly become a poor three point shooter.
4. Baron Davis - 173 - He was healthy enough last year, but don’t count on him having another year of good health. He’ll go to some poor sap in the first round, so you won’t likely even have a chance at him, especially since you now know that you would be a sap to pick him so high. His 173 points was from being a product of Nellie’s system, so since he isn’t playing for Nellie or D’Antoni, don’t look for him to get nearly so many three pointers.
5. Joe Johnson - 169 - It’s hard to know where the Hawks are going. They lost some good players over the offseason, but the still have a host of good young talent. I don’t think Joe Johnson is going to do any better than 169 especially if some of his teammates start stepping up. If he is available in the fourth round and you don’t have any other three pointers yet, snap him up.
6. Hedo Turkoglu - 166 - Turkoglu is finally getting the minutes. Even when he wasn’t getting the minutes, he was still making Fantasy teams. I expect his numbers to remain at or slightly above where they were last season. Which means he might be knocking on the door of the first tier players this year. He’s being drafted somewhere in the fourth round, which might be a slight deal, but not too much.
7. Mike Dunleavy - 165 - Another player who might benefit from O’Neal leaving the team and from getting a lightning fast point guard passing him the ball, or he might not. He’s likely to be available in the fourth round, but his stats last year were similar to those of second rounders. He might be a deal. But then again, with the team changing so much, it’s really hard to say. I’d probably take the risk though.
8. Leandro Barbosa - 164 - Can he get another 164 without the D’Antoni offense. He’s been getting better and better and fellow teammates and three pointer shooters Steve Nash and Raja Bell are getting older and older and playing fewer and fewer minutes. Will Barbosa do the same as has been? My bet is that he won’t. Still, if he is available in the eighth round, he might be worth the gamble.

Shorter descriptions from now on.

1. Deshawn Stevenson - 158
2. J.R. Smith - 157
3. Manu Ginobili - 156 - but remember that he injured himself in the Olympics and isn’t likely to play for at least a month.
4. Mike Miller - 155 - Traded to Minnesota. Will he thrive there or not?
5. Al Harrington - 153 - Without Baron Davis getting him the ball, how good will he be?
6. Kobe Bryant - 150 - If you pick up Bryant, three pointers are an added bonus. You’re probably really picking him up for his points.
7. Keith Bogans - 148 - Will he be the starter or not?
8. Paul Pierce - 143
9. Ben Gordon - 142 - He’s playing for a contract. Who knows what he can do, if the Bulls let him.

Tier 4 (2.0 per game possible)

1. Rafer Alston - 143 - How much playing time is he really going to get? Nobody ever thinks he has a chance of getting good playing time, but every year he manages to get good playing time.
2. Rashad McCants - 142 - Can he stay healthy?
3. Shane Battier - 139
4. Chauncey Billups - 137 - Getting older
5. Jason Terry - 136
6. Ricky Davis - 135
7. Michael Redd - 130