Every year we have a bunch of players who are considered top prospects who really should not be.

In my opinion, it should always be based on previous statistics and previous health rather than future potential. Every once in a while, a player lives up to expectations, but more often than not, the players that make it for the first time to the upper echelon have been moving that general direction for years or they surprise everyone.

Let’s take a look at Five Players who are likely to be taken in the top 3 rounds who you should avoid:

1. Elton Brand – He has been a fantastic player in the past, but his move to a new team AND his return from a serious injury has to stir up some concerns among Fantasy Owners. You really can’t take a chance that your first round pick won’t be fully recovered or won’t mesh well with the players on his new team. Better to nab Amare Stoudemire in the first round, or go for Bosh or Camby in the second round if you want a top center.
2. Dwyane Wade – Wade seems to make my list every year. People keep telling me that I’m wrong to avoid him. I’ve been right every year so far. He played fantastically for the Olympics, but the fact that he played significant minutes in the Olympics worries me. That and the fact that he played only 51 games last season should tell Fantasy Owners to consider another guard. Iverson and Billups are almost always fairly healthy, and they should be available somewhere in this range.
3. Baron Davis – He was healthy all last year (amazingly enough) and just in time to earn himself a large contract. (Coincidence?) Look for Baron to return to his injured ways as he joins the Hollywood entertainment scene. All things being equal, I’d rather go for Billups, Deron Williams, or Steve Nash if I wanted a point guard here. (Although Deron Williams extensive Olympic time might worry me a bit.)
4. Yao Ming – Another return to my list for a third year in a row, Yao Ming is again on this list. He is likely to sit out some more due to injury. I know what he brings, but since he’ll only bring it for 50-60 games, you’ll have to pass on him. I know! I know! An 82 game Yao Ming would be fantastic! He’s just not worth the risk in the second round when you have steadier big men like Carlos Boozer and Al Jefferson in the same range.
5. Andrew Bynum – He’s pegged as a late third round in many drafts, but don’t you dare consider drafting him there. His previous stats don’t come anywhere close to him being worth a third round pick (or even a fourth rounder). In addition, you should find his previous injuries troubling enough that you avoid picking him. Rasheed Wallace, Chris Kaman, or Mehmet Okur should be much better choices for fourth round big men (and one of those might even fall to you in the fifth round, if you’re lucky).