Since some of the second round matchups are about to start, it is time to pick which teams will advance out of the second round.

I have to say that the first round showed me two things which are going to be invaluable for picking in the second round.

1. The New Orleans Hornets are a legitimate championship contender.
2. The Boston Celtics are not the prohibitive favorite for the title after the sub-.500 Hawks have taken them to 7 games.

• The Utah Jazz play more like how good playoff teams play. They get lots of rebounds, they play good defense, and they are very physical.
• The Los Angeles Lakers, on the other hand, have a bunch of players who have been known to fade in the playoffs when the going got tough and they don’t play very good defense — with two notable exceptions, Derek Fisher and Kobe Bryant.
• The Jazz have historically had a hard time against Kobe Bryant, including referees blowing whistles at the ends of games when the replay showed that he had NOT been fouled. In Bryant, the Lakers have a player who get’s the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the referees. Utah does not have such a player.
• The Jazz have a great home court advantage, but the Lakers are one of the four teams to beat them in the regular season.
• The Lakers beat the Jazz 3 out of 4 games in the regular season.

If the Jazz defeated the Lakers in 5, I wouldn’t be surprised. If the Lakers defeated the Jazz in 5, I wouldn’t be too surprised either. I’m going to go with the home court advantage on this one. Lakers in 7.

3. San Antonio Spurs at 2. New Orleans Hornets

• The San Antonio Spurs are the defending champions. They proved, in handily defeating a very good Phoenix Suns team, that they are not dead yet.
• They proved that Popovich is not above using any coaching maneuver to win, including implementing the infamous Hack-a-Shaq. (Not sure why the Suns didn’t retaliate with Hack-a-Bruce.)
• The New Orleans Hornets proved that Chris Paul and company are for real. The Dallas Mavericks, despite being only a seven seed, were no slouches. New Orleans dispatched them easily.
• New Orleans plays equally well on the road as they do at home, probably because their home court is still trying to recover from Katrina.
• San Antonio has won four championships, but never two in a row and never in an even numbered year. In case you forgot, we are in 2008.
• The season series was tied 2-2, which both teams winning on the other team’s court.
• The Hornets blew the Spurs out twice: a 24 point victory in New Orleans and a 25 point victory in San Antonio.

Normally I pick with the home court advantage in mind, but with New Orleans the home court advantage has meant absolutely nothing. Hornets in 6.

Eastern Conference

3. Orlando Magic at 2. Detroit Pistons

• I’m still not convinced that the Orlando Magic are for real. Beating Toronto accounted for nothing because we all knew that Toronto wasn’t going anywhere.
• Detroit can win if it takes the series seriously. That is a big concern for a team that is so proud that it thinks it will win no matter what, and sometimes gives away important games because it doesn’t seem to care. The Philadelphia series showed us that. Cleveland last year showed us that as well, to their own detriment.
• The season series is tied 2-2, with each team winning on the other other team’s home court. This includes an Orlando Magic win at Detroit to break a 10 game home winning streak.

I may be discounting the Magic too much, but I just don’t think that they have proven anything…yet. Pistons in 5.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers at 1. Boston Celtics

After the Boston Celtics weak 7 game showing against the Atlanta Hawks, I had to reverse my thinking.

• The Boston area has not done too well of late with unbeatable teams winning it all — see New England Patriots for more information.
• LeBron James is much better than Joe Johnson, and Joe Johnson was almost more than the Celtics could handle.
• Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen haven’t necessarily done much, playoff-wise. Are they going to do that much better together?
• The Boston Celtics almost lost to the Atlanta Hawks
• The Cavaliers have a “go to” guy at the end of the game. The Celtics have three, which means that they have 0.
• The Boston Celtics ALMOST lost to the Atlanta Hawks
• The Cavalier supporting cast have been playing much better of late — well enough to knock off a decent (but not great) Washington Wizards team. (Washington’s loss of Gilbert Arenas made that a much easier series than it might have been.)
• The Boston Celtics almost lost to the ATLANTA HAWKS

Yes, it could be that this serves as a wakeup call to the Celtics, but I’m thinking one loss is usually enough for a wakeup call. Three losses sounds more like a trend.

I’m reversing what I would have picked a couple of weeks ago. I think LeBron James is going to win this one for the Cavs. Cavaliers in 7.

No related posts.