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Fantasy Basketball Guy

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April 18, 2008

2008 NBA Playoffs – Western Conference First Round Matchups

Boy, has this been an exciting finish. I would have blogged more about it had I not been glued to the television watching it and all of the highlights that followed. And all of the analysis that followed that.

And with that, here are my predictions for the first round of the NBA Playoffs in the tough Western Conference.

8. Denver Nuggets at 1. Los Angeles Lakers – Pau Gasol has never won a playoff game…ever. I kind of questioned when everybody gave Los Angeles the mantle of NBA Champions upon making the lopsided trade for Gasol. Yeah, he is pretty good. But he has never won a playoff game at all. Ever. Not even one. The Lakers are also going to be without Andrew Bynum for the first round of the playoffs. And who knows how long it will take to work him in, even when he does come back. The Lakers may have the one seed, but I don’t think they will be the Western Conference Champions. Of course, since I’m only predicting the first round, I have to say that I don’t think the Denver Nuggets top tandem in the NBA have a chance of beating the Lakers in a seven game series. But I do think they will win a couple. Denver only lost 7 fewer games than the Lakers, after all.Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers in 6.

7. Dallas Mavericks at 2. New Orleans Hornets – I’ve heard a lot of Chris Paul talk, but for all of the talk, Paul has still never been in the NBA Playoffs. Stojakovic was a good player in the regular season who faded every year for the Sacramento Kings in the playoffs. It’s hard to think that the young Hornets or even the veterans are going to have a chance against Dallas Mavericks and their veteran point guard Jason Kidd. Kidd normally has a tough time against the fast point guards, CP3 included, but I really don’t see the young Hornets standing a chance against the Mavericks on a mission. And don’t forget. Dallas had an insanely good record, even though they only managed to pull a seven-seed. Prediction: Dallas Mavericks in 6.

6. Phoenix Suns at 3. San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs are getting older. The Suns have gotten bigger. Steve Kerr and the Phoenix Suns are hoping that Tim Duncan won’t be able to handle both Amare Stoudemire and Shaquille O’Neal. Had Phoenix not made that deal (as I said when they made it), they would not have won this matchup. Having made it for just this matchup, you’ve got to bet that Phoenix thinks they are in good shape here. I think they are, too. They won three out of the four games this year. They are going to win in the playoffs as well. Phoenix Suns in 7.

4. Utah Jazz at 5. Houston Rockets – Yup, here we go again. The Houston Rockets were the five-seed at home against the four-seed Utah Jazz last year. The Utah Jazz won that won in an exciting seventh game. Deron Williams is even better this year, but he is coming into the playoffs a bit banged up. Tracy McGrady still hasn’t won a playoff series. The Utah Jazz are practically unbeatable at home. The Houston Rockets don’t have Yao Ming, but most of their 22 game winning streak featured a Yao-less Rockets team. The Jazz have played poorly on the road, but not poorly enough to lose all 4 of the road games to the Rockets. Utah Jazz in 6.

Picking three visiting teams to win their first round series seems a little foolish, especially when compared to the statistics in years past, but we’ve never had all 8 teams with 50 wins all playing each other in the first round. Heck, if I would have picked all four of the visiting teams to win, it really wouldn’t have been that much of a stretch. I’m not going to go that far, though.

  1. Ryan Said,

    Nice article. Only thing I disagree with is Hornets Mavs series. I’m picking Hornets in 7. Going to be a good matchup I just don’t think Kidd can replicate his last regular season game. He’ll get his assists and boards but wont make shots. Chandler will have a big series on the glass and in the paint. Also, I don’t see the Rockets getting more then 1 win.

    Check out my site for a Western and Eastern Conference breakdown:
    http://hubpages.com/hub/2008-NBA-Playoffs-Part-2

  2. Dan Sampson Said,

    Jazz in 6? Jazz in 4. And Jazz will win it all! How bout that for a prediction?

  3. FBG Said,

    After the first two games, it very well looks like Ryan might be right. Chris Paul and the Hornets, despite their inexperience, are doing much better than I though they would. It still remains to be seen if Dallas can win its games at home and pull out one upset in New Orleans, but it is beginning to look like New Orleans was better than I gave them credit for.

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