Every year people want to know who to know which players will far outperform the position that they are picked at. It’s not always that easy to make those types of predictions because players are notorious for being predictable from year to year.
When I pick my Fantasy Sleepers, I prefer to go off of where people are drafting the players and pick which of those players are not being drafted where they should be based on how they normally perform — and where they are likely to perform yet again. This, of course, means that I am unlikely to pick a rookie or second year player who excels beyond all expectations, but it also means that my picks are likely to give you players deserving of high picks that you can sneak in later rounds.
I base most of my drafts in a 12 team league. If you have far more or far less than twelve teams in your league, you will have to adjust my draft positions appropriately.
I hope I have explained myself enough because we are moving on to my picks for the NBA 2007-2008 season.
1. Kevin Martin – Can anyone REALLY be on a sleepers list two years in a row? He can if everybody is still allowing him to slide, in spite of what everyone knows he will do. Last year Kevin Martin had a stat line of 47.3% FG, 84.4% FT, 127 3PT, 1618 points, 98 steals, an adequate amount of rebounds and assists, and ONLY 135 turnovers. Why are people waiting until the 4th round to pick this guy? Those numbers are better than everybody in the second and third rounds of most Fantasy Drafts. And they aren’t likely to get any worse this year. He also played in over 70 games in each of the last two seasons, including 80 games last season. He’s worth a second round pick, but I would try to wait a round or two if I thought I could. He is a steal if you can get him in the late 3rd round or early 4th round.
2. Leandro Barbosa – Barbosa made great strides last year improving from 13.1 points per game to 18.1 points per game. Why isn’t he getting any love! I imagine it is because he is the sixth man on the Phoenix Suns that he is being taken in the fourth round. 47.6% FG, 84.5% FT, 190 3PT, 1444 points, and ONLY 146 turnovers are great numbers. If you happen to pick at the end of the third round and beginning of the fourth round, you could really make a killing with Kevin Martin and Leandro Barbosa on your team. Like Kevin Martin, he is worth a much higher pick, but I’d try to sneak him in the third or fourth rounds if I thought I could do it.
4. Luol Deng – 51.7% FG, 1540 points, 579 rebounds, and a host of other good stats (including turnovers), Luol Deng is going in the fifth round in most drafts while his numbers rank him equal to second rounder Chris Bosh. Take him in the fourth if you can. He is well worth it.
5. Kirk Hinrich – Luol Deng’s running mate in Chicago has amazingly similar numbers to Deng. Hinrich’s line last year was 44.8% FG, 83.5% FT, 140 3PT, 1327 points, 500 assists, and 100 steals are destined to be repeated this year with Chicago’s team changing very little over the offseason. Like Deng, he is being picked up in the fifth round, but also like Deng, he deserves to be a second round pick. Pick him in the fifth if you think you can get away with it.
6. Shane Battier – Shane Battier’s beauty is that he gets you some of everything without any turnovers. He doesn’t need to score, so the strong additions in Houston aren’t likely to change his stat line much. He is going in the eight or ninth rounds of most drafts but he’ll get you stats like a fourth rounder. I always like to think of him as my safe pick (like PJ Brown always used to be), because he won’t get you crazy stats like Kobe or Lebron, but he’ll save you from being last place in turnovers at the same time. He’s definitely worth taking in the eighth round, where he will likely be available.
7. Samuel Dalembert / Andris Biedrins – If you’ve managed to pick sleepers the whole way, you’re probably wondering what the heck you are going to do about picking up some blocks and someone available to play at the center position. Never fear! Biedrins and Dalembert are both likely to be available in the seventh round, and both have stats which normally place them somewhere among the fourth round as far as their effectiveness. Both of them played all 82 games last year, with is usually a plus, especially when it comes to centers (who are often injury prone).
8. Raja Bell – If you haven’t drafted any of the top three point shooters and you’re already to the eighth round, you’re probably in trouble, right? Well, you might be unless Raja Bell happens to still be available (which he is in many leagues). Bell doesn’t get you a whole lot in any other categories but his 205 3PT last year led the league (tied with Arenas). He also doesn’t hurt you in turnovers (like Arenas surely will). He’s a steal if he lasts to the eighth round.
9. Jarrett Jack – Often overshadowed by Brandon Roy, Jarrett Jack is likely to have another solid campaign this year in Portland. Often lasting until the eleventh or twelfth rounds of the draft, Jack plays more like a sixth round player. He would certainly make a great addition to anyone’s bench. (He usually is a great fill in for injuries from my bench.)
10. Andrei Kirilenko – I’m not sure what to make of Kirilenko. His stats almost every year make him a first round pick — except for last season. Will he return to his winning ways, or have the Utah Jazz moved on? He’s likely to be available in the fifth round (possibly even early sixth round), where I’d take a flying leap at him and hope for the best. You’re not likely to get a possible first round pick in the fifth or sixth round in any year (unless you went for Kevin Martin last year like I told you to), so it is likely the worth the risk for the possible reward.
Fourth Round: Kevin Martin, Leandro Barbosa, Manu Ginobili
Fifth Round: Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich
Sixth Round: Andrei Kirilenko
Seventh Round: Samuel Dalembert, Andris Biedrins
Eight Round: Raja Bell, Shane Battier
Bench: Jarrett Jack
35.3%
23.5%
20.6%
5.9%
5.9%
5.9%
2.9%
0.0%