It’s time for another issue of what is bound to be an annual column cautioning Fantasy Ballers not to pick guys too high just because everyone else is doing it.

If you want to see how well I picked last year, check out my column. I did pretty well. Everyone in my list was about where I predicted that they would be. Even Chris Bosh, the best of the five, was not worth better than an early third rounder, despite what many comments said. I quote Bucko, “What players are in your top 2 rounds over Bosh and Ming?” Well, obviously, a whole lot. Poor Bucko.

Luckily for Chris Bosh, he graduated from my list. He is only predicted to be a late second rounder, which is probably just about right. Two other players also found a better position, far from the top of the totem pole. Sadly, two players remain on my list.

Just like last year, I am going to pick the top 5 players that are predicted to go far above their value. Then, if there are many others, I will give you some honorable mentions. (This year the honorable mention list is rather small.)

Here is my list for 2007’s most overrated draft picks…

1. Dwyane Wade – Surprise! Surprise! I told you last year that he wasn’t worth a first round draft pick. I’m going to tell you again that he isn’t worth a first round draft pick. Early third round, maybe, but he’ll be long gone way before then. If he stayed healthy, he’d probably be worth a high second round pick, but with him carrying most of the load on the senior citizen Miami Heat, he isn’t likely to play more than 60 games again this year. I’m warning you now. Do not pick him up in the first round! There are far better players to pick up there!

2. Yao Ming – Alright, it was really hard to put him in the list again this year because he looked like he was finally well on his way to a breakout season when he got injured. I’m beginning to think, though, that he is not going to really be healthy for an entire year — just like many other centers in the league. I think he has the potential, if healthy, to be worth a low third round pick (like Dwyane Wade) even though he only merited a fifth or sixth rounder last year. He is likely to be a late first round pick, though, and that is way too high for him.

3. Chris Paul – I’m still not sold on picking Chris Paul in the late first round round area. Jason Kidd is a much more reasonable pick for assists here, based on his history alone and the fact that he doesn’t seem to be slowing down even though everyone keeps predicting that he will. If it were me, I’d pick Chancey Billups in the second round or Deron Williams in the third round rather than picking Chris Paul way up here.

4. Josh Smith – I realize that the guy gets you a whole lot of blocks, but none of the rest of his categories merit giving him a second round pick. Frankly, I wouldn’t pick him at all, but he isn’t worth better than a fourth round pick, at the highest. And I can guarantee you that nobody will let him last that far. If you are going to pick a guy in the second round to get you blocks, Marcus Camby is a much better choice. A fifth or sixth round pick of Andrei Kirilenko or even a twelfth round pick of Alonzo Mourning might give you enough blocks to compete, if you are really worried about them.

5. Al Jefferson – Al Jefferson was the second best guy on one of the worst teams in the league. He moves to Minnesota where he is arguably the second best guy (after Ricky Davis) on one of the worst teams in the league. Everyone keeps expecting him to get really good stats. If he couldn’t get really good stats in an identical situation in Boston, how is he going to suddenly be much better in Minnesota. His center status is probably going to get him picked in the late second round, but he really probably isn’t much better than a fifth round pick — maybe fourth round if you really think he is going to improve.

Honorable Mention

Ray Allen/Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett – They are all great players, but picking them all in the first two rounds when they are now all on the same team seems crazy. Who is going to take the hit? It’s hard to say, but if I had to guess, I’d say that Ray Allen’s stats are the most likely to stay the same. Kevin Garnett is destined to drop, in points if nothing else, so one of the top three picks seems a bit high for him. (I pick Kobe, Shaun, Dirk, and probably even Gilbert above Kevin Garnett, if I have the chance.) Paul Pierce also seems likely to take a hit, and after being injured for much of last year, I wouldn’t give him a second round pick either.

Jason Richardson – I realize that he went to the one team with no real players on it — the Charlotte Bobcats — but his percentages are far too low to make him worth a third round pick. Fifth or sixth round, maybe, but third round? No way! He was injured for much of last year and isn’t on a remotely similar team this year, so it is really hard to judge where he will be, so I would let someone else make the mistake of picking him too high.