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Fantasy Basketball Guy

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June 08, 2007

2007 NBA Draft Predictions

I predict that every team with a first round draft pick will have the potential to pick up someone who can help their team.

I predict that Seattle will finally make a pick that helps out their team.

After that, I dare not predict anything.

Most people are saying that Portland is going to pick Greg Oden. Of course, Portland has yet to say that, and I think it is that they really don’t know which one they should pick — Greg Oden or Kevin Durant.

Here is the huge problem.

Portland drafted Sam Bouie instead of Michael Jordan.

It’s funny that a draft about a quarter of a century ago might dictate what they do today. It’s probably also good that it is having that effect though. If you don’t learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it, so the saying goes. And in this case, there is a very real possibility that history could be repeated. That’s not to say that Greg Oden is a Sam Bouie, but if Greg Oden is a Greg Ostertag, a tall center with flashes of brilliance but a questionable work ethic that never allows him to develop to his perceived potential, Portland will be kicking themselves. And everyone else will be kicking them too.

Even in the more recent past, we also have Darko Milicic (one of the perceived three best players in the draft) taken over Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh (among others). Greg Oden has similarities to Darko Milicic as well, in that both are very young players, who, because of their height, dominated at their position that last couple of years before making the jump to the NBA. Because he has been in the spotlight for the last couple of years, we sometimes forget that he is isn’t much older than Darko was when he came into the NBA. And he is older only due to the fact that the NBA instituted a new rule to prevent high schoolers from jumping directly to the NBA.

We also have Dwight Howard picked over Emeka Okafor by the Orlando Magic. Nobody will fault them their decision. Okafor has been sidelined by injuries, just as Orlando thought he might be. Dwight Howard has developed into a very dominant player, even at his still young age. Orlando obviously made the right pick for the right reason after doing the right research.

Kevin Durant, on the other hand, has never had anyone question his desire. His play in college was stellar, and he is probably only going to get better. He has a great work ethic and a great knowledge of the game, even at his young age.

Durant or Oden. Oden or Durant.

Portland is going to pick carefully.

As for the rest of the first round picks, they aren’t Oden or Durrant, but they are likely to be very good role-players, at the very least. Oh, you’ll have a bust here and there, as you always do, but there are a lot of teams trying to get into the first round or another pick in the first round, just because of the perceived depth of this draft.

I wouldn’t even dare make some predictions on where the rest of the players might go. Many other sites have already made educated guesses, and I’d rather defer to their hours and hours of research than try to slap together my own list.

Not that it matters too much because the NBA Draft rarely goes as scripted, anyway.

But sometimes it’s fun to make the attempt.

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