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Fantasy Basketball Guy

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April 30, 2007

Why the defending champions couldn’t win a playoff game

Well, the results are in.

The Chicago Bulls advance to the second round to play against the top-seeded Detroit Pistons.

But lets take a step back and see what happened.

Last year about this same time, the Chicago Bulls were surging. They had won a bunch of games going into the playoffs and were picked by many (including yours truly) to defeat the Miami Heat. They played valiantly, but they couldn’t beat the eventual NBA Champion Miami Heat.

Fast forward to this year. The Chicago Bulls are again playing very well going into the playoffs. They play against the now defending champion Miami Heat. They sweep them in four.

What gives?

What is the difference between this year and last year?

Let’s first look at the Miami Heat

Dwyane Wade was injured midway through the season. It was thought that he might need surgery on his shoulder. He rehabbed it instead and didn’t look too bad in the playoffs. He probably wasn’t 100% but he was also probably the best player on the team even injured.

Aging players probably contributed the most to being a one and done franchise. They were built for the short term. Shaquille O’Neal, Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, and Eddie Jones were all very good, but by NBA standards, they are also very old. Add to that Jason Williams, Michael Doleac, and James posey, who all have 7+ years in the league as well, and you are starting to see that they didn’t have much youth on the roster. An 82 game season in for the young, and with the young out with injuries (Wade and Kapono), the old guys probably didn’t have much left in the tank.

The future of the franchise currently rests on the backs of 6 young players. That’s right, 6. Just 6.

Now let’s look at the Chicago Bulls

The Chicago Bulls have been relatively free of injuries. They played together for almost the whole season and they gelled nicely.

They won a lot of regular season games. They were not far away from being the 2 seed, losing the opportunity on the last day to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Essentially, the Miami Heat were a 4 seed up against a 2 seed, and it looked that way.

They have been picking in the top 10 in the NBA Draft for the last decade. They have swapped picks here and there to get other talent, but if you think about having a team with the top college players year after year added to a single roster you can see why, after a few years to get some experience under their belt, they have become a REALLY good team. Their roster contains only two players with 10 years or more of experience — P.J. Brown and Ben Wallace.

The future of the Chicago Bulls looks bright. They’ll have a tough time with the Detroit Pistons in the second round, but they definitely have the talent to beat them. Looking ahead even farther, they are almost certain to have the talent and the depth to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers — Lebron is good, but the baby Bulls together are better than Lebron alone. Beyond that, they can probably also beat any team that comes out of the Western Conference slugfest, but do they really have the experience necessary to beat Dallas, Phoenix, or San Antonio?

Conclusion

I picked the Bulls in 7 because I knew that the Bulls would win, but I couldn’t in good conscience have the defending champs go out so easily. On hindsight, I should have gone with my gut. A 4-1 or 4-2 would have looked much more like I saw what was coming.

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  1. Blake Said,

    Many think the San Antonio Spurs will win this year.

    NBA Champion Poll: http://polls.hopto.org/polls.aspx?poll=29&partner=0&Desc=2007_NBA_Playoffs

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