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Fantasy Basketball Guy

News and Advice About NBA Fantasy Basketball And A Commentary Of Everything Else NBA

October 18, 2006

Players taken too high

I’m probably going to get a lot of angry comments for some of these choices, but there are a lot of players that are going way too high in most fantasy drafts according to what their stats should dictate. Let’s look at five of these players, and some others that should be honorably mentioned.

1. Dwyane Wade – Wade was one of the best players in the game last year, which is shown by the fact that his team won the Title and he was the MVP. His stats, however, are only really worthy of a mid to late second round pick in most leagues, yet he is being picked mid-first round, or higher. The culprits are his three pointers (13 last season) and his high turnovers (268). Gilbert Arenas by comparison, shot 4% higher free throw percentage, 300 more points, and nearly 200 more three pointers. Arenas gives up a lot of rebounds to Wade, but Arenas is much better stat-wise overall, as many blogs attest to. If you pick Wade early, make sure you compensate for his total lack of 3-pointers.

2. Chris Bosh – Some people are picking up Bosh in the first round, at about the same area as Elton Brand and Dirk Nowitzki. Bosh doesn’t get nearly as many blocks as Brand nor as many 3-pointers as Nowitzki, and he got 500 less points than both of those other players. If he hadn’t missed some games last year, he might have had higher stats, but he should still be more of a 3rd or early 4th round pick. How much upside could he really have over last year?

3. Yao Ming – Every year he is taken in the second year, and every year he disappoints. By last years stats, he should have been taken somewhere around the middle of the 6th round. Some of that is due to injury, obviously, but you have to take that into account. His stats are decent all around, but there are a lot better players to be had in the second round.

4. Richard Hamilton – I made the mistake of taking Rip one year, and I won’t do it again unless he falls to the eighth round. Which he won’t? He is always taken around the fifth round, but his stats are so one-dimensional, that he shouldn’t even get a look until the 7th round.

5. Tony Parker – Tony has some pretty nice stats like FG%, points, assists, and steals, especially for a guy going around the fifth round. Unfortunately, his free throw percentage is attrocious, he shoots no three pointers, and he gets a ton of turnovers. His stats are more worthy of an eighth or ninth round pick than a fifth-rounder. Make sure you compensate for his shortcomings if you pick him up earlier than you should.

Honorable Mentions

My honorable mentions didn’t make the list above because injuries prevented them from getting great stats. Of course, for some of these guys, injuries are pretty much a part of their game. Be very careful in expecting great stats from a guy who missed much of last year from injuries. Go with a safer player instead, rather than drafting them up much higher than their stats deserve.

1. Amare Stoudemire – Is he really near 100%, like he claims?

2. Tracy McGrady – How long has it been since he has been healthy?

3. Carlos Boozer – Has he really recovered? Or is he in for another recurrance?

4. Shaquille O’Neal – His body keeps going downhill.

5. Emeka Okafor – Charlotte sure hopes he is finally healthy. I wouldn’t bank my team on it.

6. Corey Maggette – Great free throw shooter when he is healthy. He wasn’t last year.

  1. sports fan Said,

    For the most part I agree with you so you won’t be receiving any angry comments from me. Great rundown.

  2. Nels Said,

    According to NBA.com’s stats from last season, Wade was #8 (not a late second rounder) and Yao was #34 putting him at the end of the 3rd or mid-4th depending on how many teams are in your league. They project Wade to be #4 this season, with Yao at #13. The Sports Forecaster puts Wade at #2 for this year, with Yao #36.

    I’d say you are right about Bosh, Hamilton and Parker though. They’re all overrated, and the only one with the potential to improve is Bosh. Hamilton has always been a one-trick pony and, like you, I don’t understand why he is so highly valued.

    Another obvious injury risk is Baron Davis (though I’ve still managed to draft him in 2 leagues).

  3. bucko Said,

    What players are in your top 2 rounds over Bosh and Ming?

  4. David Said,

    To not really answer bucko’s question, I don’t really have room in a comment to list on 20 players better than Chris Bosh and Yao Ming. Hopefully both of them improve a ton this year, but I’ve found that most players improve a little each year, especially when they start getting into the first 3 to 5 rounds. Most of your vast improvements happen between rounds 5 to 10, or in their second year in the league. You have a bunch of players that are always in the top 2 rounds, and I don’t think either of these two will crack into that list.

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